July 30, 2024

Christians are disappearing in the Middle East

by Dominique Hoffman, Associate Director of the Philos Leadership Institute

Why are Christians disappearing in the Near East?

The Middle East is home to some of the first Christian communities of the 1st century AD, which followed Jesus’ ministry in Judea and in Galilee and quickly spread across the region. These indigenous Christian communities comprise Maronite, Melkite (Greek), Armenian, Coptic, Chaldean, and Assyrian churches.

Under the Ottoman Empire, indigenous Christians faced systemic persecution, which has only been exacerbated in the last several decades by Arab nationalism and the rise of Islamism.

– In the 20th century, the Christian population of the region comprised ~13.6%.

– In 2020, the population of Christians diminished to 4.2%, and by 2050, experts predict less than ~3.6% of Christians will remain in their ancient homeland.

Christians in Lebanon

1910: 77.5 % | Today: ~32.4%

Lebanon’s Maronite Christian community dates to the time of Christ. Since its independence from the French in 1943, numerous civil wars, high birth rates among Muslims, the threat of Hezbollah and Islamism, and economic crisis have led to Christian persecution and emigration from Lebanon over the last 100 years.

Note: The last official census was conducted in 1932 under the French Mandate. Modern data is pulled from elections, but it is not totally reliable or representative. The highest estimated number is ~34%, with one of the lowest numbers cited being 19%. 1910 numbers taken from the census of Ottoman-controlled Mutasarrifate of Mount Lebanon.

Christians in Egypt

1910: 18.7 % | Today: ~5%

Coptic Christians have historically been marginalized, persecuted, and physically attacked/killed in sectarian clashes at the community level, but also through systematic government persecution. Persecution increased in 2011 during the Arab Spring, which popularized the long-suppressed Muslim Brotherhood and the party’s political influence. Many Christians in Egypt suffered the mass murder campaign at the hands of ISIS.

Note: In 2011, PewResearch published a review of the Egyptian population census. The CIA Factbook estimates ~10% of the population is Christian, but this report is one of the highest cited numbers. These population stats are not universally recognized and political ambitions will often inflate or deflate these numbers to serve larger aims.

Christians in Jordan

1910: 5.8% | Today: ~2.1%

The Christian community in Jordan dates to the 1st century AD and was once a thriving majority. The decline of Christians is primarily due to the rise of Muslim immigration and the high Muslim birth rates. For the most part, Jordanian Christians are integrated into society and are tolerated, but persecution takes place at the community level.

Christians in the Palestinian Territories

1910: 11.6% | Today in Gaza: 0.5% | Today in the West Bank: ~2%

Gaza was home to Christians over 200 years before the birth of Islam. Today, Christians are persecuted by Hamas and live as “dhimmi,” second-class citizens.

Marriage laws prohibiting interfaith marriage, as well as religious persecution resulting in economic desperation, have resulted in a decline in Christian birthrates and emigration.

Note: The Christian population in Gaza before Israel’s unilateral withdrawal was ~5,000. Before 10/7, less than 1,000 Christians remain in Gaza. In the West Bank, of the ~3 million inhabitants, 50,000 are Christian. What was defined as “Palestine” under the Ottoman Empire has been redrawn since 1910.

Christians in Syria

1910: 15.6% | Today: ~2%

Christian emigration due to persecution in Syria dates to the Ottoman Empire. After bloody persecution from 1840-60 to the Assyrian genocide from 1914-23, many Christians left or were killed. Since 2011, persecution has come as the result of the civil war and increased violence from radical Sunni Islamists, including the mass murder campaign of ISIS.

Christians in Iraq

1910: 6.3% | Today: ~1%

Iraqi Christians suffered like those in Syria under the Ottoman campaign against Assyrian Christians. Since the 2003 Iraq War, Christians have fled due to political violence and government persecution. Iraqi Christians also suffered torture, forced displacement, and mass murder campaigns at the hands of ISIS.

Christians in Türkiye

1910: 21.7% | Today: ~0.2%

Since the Ottoman Empire, Christians have been viewed as an internal enemy, resulting in official state policies that have banned and systemically persecuted Christians. The Turkish government carried out both genocide in Armenia and ethnic cleansing by forcibly deporting 1.2 million Greek Orthodox Christians in 1923.

Today, Christians continue to face religious persecution at the community and government level with the popularized Pan-Turkish vision for the region.

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Recommended reading: The Vanishing: The Twilight of Christianity in the Middle East by Janine di Giovanni

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