Why should you be keeping an eye on Türkiye?
Türkiye is shifting away from the West. While Türkiye has been a longstanding ally of the West (it has been an applicant to join the European Union since 1987), it has been orienting more towards Islamist sentiment in recent years.
President Erdoğan and his party have chipped away at the political and social pillars of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s secular republic. Erdoğan is an entrenched critic of gender equality, stating on the record that it is “against nature” to treat men and women equally. Erdoğan is also known to raise a four-finger salute, a symbol of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and has been a staunch critic of Israel.
Keep reading for three reasons why Türkiye’s shift away from the West is important:
1. Türkiye is buddying up with Hamas
Early in November, Qatar evicted Hamas leadership, whose members have been hosted in the country for decades, at the request of the United States. While the Hamas office has not officially moved to Türkiye, and neither Ankara nor Hamas has made an announcement, many people are speculating about a new Hamas hub in the country.
If Türkiye chooses to facilitate a Hamas office within its borders, it would mark a definite shift away from the West and toward a more Islamist orientation.
2. Türkiye cut diplomatic relations with Israel
Türkiye was the first Muslim-majority country to recognize the state of Israel in 1949, yet recently cut off diplomatic relations with the Jewish State under President Erdoğan, marking a shift from its moderating presence in the Near East.
Cutting off relations with Israel is another signal that Türkiye is moving closer to terrorist organizations.
This is problematic to the West because, as a member of NATO (The North Atlantic Treaty Organization), Türkiye holds the power to invoke NATO Article 5, which obliges other members, including the United States, to defend Türkiye in a war with a non-NATO party.
If Türkiye were to align itself more closely with a designated terrorist organization, it would greatly complicate its treaty obligations with the Western world.
3. Türkiye is a major winner from Assad’s collapse in Syria
To counter Iran’s regional power, President Erdoğan has long worked with the rebels who recently overtook Damascus and overthrew Assad’s regime.
Since Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s weakening of Iranian proxy powers after October 7th, Iran and Russia’s influence in the region has dwindled. As a result of these shifts, Türkiye’s influence is likely to grow.
Türkiye has also occupied 3,500 square miles of Syrian territory and carried out strikes in Kurdish areas.
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